Why? Because Annie Duke’s 2018 masterpiece, Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts , has become a cult classic in the worlds of behavioral economics, startup strategy, and personal development. And GitHub, a platform known for hosting open-source code, has unfortunately become a shadow library for free PDFs.
Life is like poker, not chess. In chess, there is perfect information and a clear causal chain (move A leads to result B). In poker (and life), you can make a perfectly rational decision and still lose because of bad luck. Conversely, you can make a terrible decision and win because of chance. thinking in bets pdf github
: Instead of using "right" or "wrong," frame beliefs as percentages (e.g., "I'm 70% confident in this"). Wanna Bet? Life is like poker, not chess